“After resuming growth in the first quarter of 2024, the EU economy continued to expand throughout the second and third quarters at a steady, albeit subdued, pace”. This is according to the Autumn Economic Forecast presented today in Brussels by Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, who, for the last time, was called upon to perform this task. Gentiloni pointed to “employment growth and recovery in real wages” although “household consumption was restrained” by the cost of living and “increased uncertainty following the repeated exposure to extreme shocks”. Households therefore preferred “to save an increasing share of their income”. “At the same time, investment disappointed, with a deep and broad-based contraction across most Member States and asset categories in the first half of 2024”. Now, however, “the restraint to consumption appears to be loosening”. As inflation declines, the purchasing power of wages gradually recovers and interest rates fall, “consumption is set to expand”. Furthermore, investment is also expected to “rebound on the back of strong corporate balance sheets, recovering profits, and improving credit conditions”. The impulse of the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds will also drive “an increase in public investment over the forecast horizon”. Overall, domestic demand is projected to drive economic growth in the future. “In 2025 and 2026, exports and imports are expected to grow at broadly the same pace, implying a neutral contribution to growth by net trade”.