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EU Commission: Economic Forecast. Growth slows down, inflation declines, “robust” labour market. EU27 GDP at 0.8% in 2023

Paolo Gentiloni (Foto European Commission)

“The EU economy continues to grow, albeit with reduced momentum”. This is the key message in the Summer Economic Forecast, presented by the European Commission in Brussels today. Indeed, the Commission revises growth in the EU27 economy down to 0.8% in 2023, from 1% projected in the Spring Forecast, and 1.4% in 2024, from 1.7%. It also revises growth in the euro area down to 0.8% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and 1.3% in 2024 (from 1.6%). At the same time, inflation is expected to “continue to decline”: the consumer price index is projected to “reach 6.5% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 in the EU”. In the euro area, inflation is forecast to be 5.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. According to the document presented at the Berlaymont building, the “latest data confirm that economic activity in the EU was subdued in the first half of 2023 on the back of the formidable shocks that the EU has endured. Weakness in domestic demand, in particular consumption, shows that high and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected in the Spring Forecast. This is despite declining energy prices and an exceptionally strong labour market, which has seen record low unemployment rates, continued expansion of employment, and rising wages”.

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