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European elections: opinion polls by Adenauer Foundation, EPP down but remains first party in EU Parliament. Populists far behind

(Brussels) As a result of the upcoming elections, the European People’s Party (EPP) would remain the largest group in the European Parliament, but its share would be reduced (-1.2% up to -4.6% of seats). 28.9% of MEPs currently belong to the EPP. After the 26 May elections, the group would still hold 24.3% to 27.7% of the EP seats. These are some of the findings of the “EPP Party Barometer”, a poll published by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation that looks at the current situation of the EPP Group while also providing an outlook on the upcoming elections. The S&D would be at 19.4%, down from 25% of the seats. The far-right and the far-left would potentially win 20% of the seats or more depending on whether the 5-Star Movement would join the group or form a separate group on its own. However, “64-72% of MEPs would continue belonging to moderate political groups (EPP, S&D, Liberals+Macron-led movement, Greens”. The polls show that the EPP “remains more or less constant”, while the S&D and Liberals (including Macron) and the right-wing ENF would slightly increase their share. The document gives three possible scenarios, depending on the positioning of Macron and the 5-Star Movement. According to national polls, an EPP party is leading in 10 European countries; the Socialists in 9; the ALDE in 4; the ECR (Conservatives) in 3; and independents and right-wing populists in one each. Also according to opinion polls, the EPP family enjoys strong support (above 30%) in Germany, Hungary, Romania, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, and Cyprus.

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