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Economy: EU Forecast. Germany revised down, Greece and Poland perform well. “Brexit remains a source of uncertainty”

(Brussels) “The European economy is set to continue to benefit from improving labour market conditions, favourable financing conditions and a slightly expansionary fiscal stance”, says the Winter Economic Forecast released in Brussels today. “Among the larger Member States, downward revisions for growth in 2019 were sizeable for Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands”. Many Member States “continue to benefit from robust domestic demand, also supported by EU funds”. The GDP figures by country, for 2019 and 2020 respectively, are: Germany 1.1% and 1.7%; Italy 0.2 and 0.8 (the only country with a growth below 1%); Greece 2.2 and 2.3; Spain 2.1 and 1.9; France 1.3 and 1.5; Malta 5.2 and 4.6; Slovakia 4.1 and 3.5; Hungary 3.4 and 2.6; Poland 3.5 and 3.2; Romania 3.8 and 3.6; and the United Kingdom 1.3 and 1.3. According to the Commission, a “high level of uncertainty surrounds the economic outlook and the projections are subject to downside risks. Trade tensions, which have been weighing on sentiment for some time, have alleviated somewhat but remain a concern. China’s economy may be slowing more sharply than anticipated”. Furthermore, “for the EU, the Brexit process remains a source of uncertainty”.

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