Some were hoping that it would happen. In reality, it was unrealistic to expect anything other than the events that took place on January 10, when Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated for his third term as President of Venezuela following the disputed elections of July 28. Maduro was sworn in before a small group of international delegations representing the few countries that still support the post-Chavista regime, in the presence of only two heads of state, Cuba’s Miguel Díaz-Canel and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega, while the leftist governments of Chile, Brazil and Colombia distanced themselves from Maduro, albeit to varying degrees. Most European governments, starting with Italy, and international bodies insisted on the illegitimacy of the election victory. The President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, called for Venezuela to be returned to the Venezuelan people and declared that “Maduro should face justice instead of taking an illegitimate oath.” Venezuelan opposition supporters once again took to the streets in protest, but not for a moment was there any indication that this could in any way deal a ‘blow’ to the regime. This scenario has already been played out several times, starting in January 2019. Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition leader who had been claiming victory all along, had announced he would return to Venezuela from exile abroad. However, he has remained outside its national borders, looking forward to returning and be proclaimed president “at the right moment.”
Maduro, the position of the military, the all-too-predictable predictions of the opposition… will that moment ever come? People are starting to lose hope. An important figure in the Venezuelan ecclesiastical and cultural landscape, has entrusted SIR with a realistic interpretation of the situation, asking to remain anonymous in the knowledge that Maduro regime’s repression is intensifying. Our source explains: “Nicolás Maduro is entering a new and totally illegitimate time in office. The international community, international human rights organisations and UN agencies have all taken a firm stance on this.” A number of political analysts agree that this is due to the president’s continued control of the armed forces, despite his low popular approval rating. The analyst points out: “In my opinion Maduro does not actually have the backing of the Armed Forces, but he does in fact maintain their control. There is clearly an elite group in the military with ties to the ruling coalition and with many economic interests. But it wouldn’t be fair to assume that there is any institutional support from the armed forces. Consider, for example, that prior to 28 July, the date of the presidential election, the number of political prisoners among the military was significantly higher than among civilians. All of this points to widespread dissatisfaction and distrust of those in power. Of course, this changed after 28 July, when almost 2,000 civilians, mostly from low-class sectors, were arrested. In short, it would be wrong to say that the armed forces support the regime; there is a police state in the institutions, which creates widespread mistrust and internal fragmentation. Domestic control is exerted by denouncing and spreading suspicion, but this is not the same as institutional support.”
At any rate, adds our source, “the military environment is impenetrable, a Pandora’s box, the entire command system is run by the Cubans, who are experts in the art of harnessing power, the government lacks societal support, the people have decided they want a change, but social control through state terrorism is very strong. On top of all this, the country is governed by a legal framework that is completely unconstitutional. The paradox is that legality has become illegitimate and unconstitutional, because it is a garment that the ruling power has fashioned for itself.”
Our interlocutor is skeptical about the opposition’s chances of success: “Unfortunately, the Venezuelan opposition remains uncoordinated. It raised false expectations about the possible outcome of 10 January, and another unfulfilled prediction may lead to more frustration and more people emigrating. The government closed the borders a few days ago with many acabalas (roadblocks) set up nationwide. A security crackdown has been put in place in the city of Caracas, with many vehicles driving around without number plates and hooded officers with no identification stopping people at will, often to extort money, other times to arbitrarily arrest them. Prior to 10 January, there had been a wave of arbitrary arrests of social and political leaders in various parts of the country. The well-known Christian journalist and human rights defender Carlos Correa, with extensive experience in social and human rights activism, was arrested in Caracas and arbitrarily disappeared; the government is crossing all the red lines and we are facing a state of extreme insecurity. The arrest and disappearance of Correa, president of the NGO Espacio público, has caused widespread concern internationally. Amnesty International, in particular, has launched a petition for his release. The Observatory on Democracy of the Association of Universities Entrusted to the Society of Jesus in Latin America (AUSJAL) issued a communiqué denouncing the activist’s disappearance and calling for clarification of his case. In total, twelve journalists are currently imprisoned in the country, according to the National College of Journalists of Venezuela.
Hope is nurtured by the Church. The Church remains the population’s vital pillar in this trying context, fostering the resilience of civil society. The country’s bishops expressed their concerns on Thursday, calling for the popular will to be respected, but in vain. Nevertheless, the Church has been actively engaged throughout the national territory and in parishes, preserving people’s hope for the future. Father Néstor Briceño, parish priest of the Church of the Transfiguration of the Lord in El Cafetal, a suburb on the eastern outskirts of Caracas, attests to this in a letter he sent to his parishioners. “A number of psychologists have analysed our predicament in recent days,” the priest writes in the letter received by SIR. “They invite us to build resilience by strengthening hope, which can only be achieved through patience. Now is the time to focus on what has been achieved rather than what has not.” He added: “Family separations, economic and health difficulties, along with a series of other calamities have saddened our people. We cannot allow ourselves to be overwhelmed by the demons of sadness, which try to defeat us at every opportunity.” Hence the final exhortation, in the context of the Jubilee Year that has just begun: “We must live our history with genuine hope.”
