Until a few years ago, Latin America was dubbed the “backyard” of the United States, because of the way the US “made and unmade” governments to its political advantage. Today, the vast subcontinent of South America and the Caribbean is, at best, an “under-utilised backyard” for US administrations. This could change in the near future, however, especially if Kamala Harris wins the presidency. As vice-president of the United States, Harris has dealt extensively with Latin American issues, and her political camp, the Democratic Party, is more inclined to pursue structured foreign relations. It is the opinion of Gianni La Bella, Professor of Contemporary History at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, a renowned expert in the field, which he is following on behalf of the Community of Sant’Egidio. He is the author of several books on South American countries. SIR interviewed him on the eve of the US presidential elections of 5 November between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Professor, does the “backyard” no longer exist? In this presidential election, does South America play a minor role?
It has to be said that interest has been declining under all the last US administrations. This trend was particularly evident during Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s presidencies. In fact, while other international affairs were in the spotlight, South America was sidelined.
It is certainly telling that for the last three or four occasions, the President of the United States has not attended the Summit of the Americas, a meeting to which all the heads of state of the continent are invited. However, the “global stage” has grown in importance and relevance, and every part of the world “counts”.
If elected, what can we expect from either candidate?
Kamala Harris could become a point of reference for progressive governments in the future. On her part, I would expect to see increased sensitivity to human rights, as well as negotiated solutions to the major issue of migration from the South to the North, and a more rights-based approach. Migration issues are also linked to the issue of investment, particularly in Central American countries.
Harris has launched and overseen a programme known as Central America Forward, which has been quite successful in creating at least 50-70,000 jobs in countries such as Honduras and Guatemala – traditional places of departure for migrant ‘caravans’. Trump is expected to push for the free market and to adopt a hard line against undocumented migrants and those stranded at the Mexican border. In his election campaign, he promised to deport all undocumented migrants. With ten million people involved, including four million Mexicans and two million Central Americans, this is a virtually impossible task. Bombastic declarations are a feature of “character”, but in most cases they are bound to remain such. The same goes for the fight against drug trafficking and relations with what I would call the “elephants in the room”: Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.
How, on the other hand, could the governments of South American countries be affected?
Much depends, of course, on their current political orientation. So, for Javier Milei’s Argentina and Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador, in particular, Donald Trump will be a focal point and ally if he wins. Conversely, Kamala Harris may well represent the progressive governments of Inacio Lula’s Brazil, Gustavo Petro’s Colombia, Gabriel Boric’s Chile and, above all, Claudia Scheinbaum’s Mexican government, which took office only a month ago.
Relations with neighbouring Mexico continue to be of special importance to the United States…
Indeed. In fact, despite his progressive leanings, former president Andrés López Obrador had a good relationship with Donald Trump at the time, but I think that Scheinbaum, also in an effort to break free from the “tutelage” of her predecessor, could ultimately rely on a privileged relationship with Harris. In any case, it is worth remembering that Mexico has become the US’s largest trading partner and that the US-Mexico-Canada agreement is up for review in 2026.
You mentioned the “elephant in the room”, home to what we conventionally call “leftist” dictatorships, now in close relations with Russia and China, and in dire financial straits. How will the new US presidency tackle the crises in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua?
This is a sensitive issue and a difficult one to deal with.
In this respect, Harris is likely to demonstrate greater sensitivity, while Trump is likely to limit his actions to bombastic declarations, given that in the current international context, a “confrontational” stance is unlikely to spark a conflict in one of these countries. However, it is important to remember that this is not just a geopolitical issue. With almost 9 million people having left the country, most of them settled in other countries of the Americas, Venezuela is facing the world’s biggest humanitarian emergency. It has been “bled dry.” Cuba has been without drinking water for two weeks and without electricity for days. Venezuela, with its oil reserves, can no longer be an economic reference.
Finally, is there any reason to believe that the next US administration will take a renewed interest in South America?
It is possible, it is certainly to be hoped for. This wish is also shared by Europe. The United States should pay more attention to this part of the world, if only because it has a “reserve” of 22-24 votes in the UN, which could be very important for this beleaguered “West”.
Today, Western societies are divided in the face of global challenges. We can only hope for greater integration between the US, Europe and South America.
Renewing the Organisation of American States (OAS), a kind of “continental UN” currently in a state of limbo, is an additional challenge. The OAS has been put in place, but it doesn’t have a significant role to play. Surrendering the continent to China and Russia is the alternative to this US-European commitment. To a large extent, this is already happening. China has long been the largest investor in the subcontinent. At the same time, new ‘regional’ powers such as Iran, which is using Venezuela as a gateway into the continent, might be given greater room for manoeuvre. Brazil, too, is a regional power, firmly established in the BRICS consensus with Russia and China. For the most part, this is a consensus of ‘autocrats’. In this context, Brazil is leading the fight to end dollar trade dominance along with the US currency’s role in the global economy. This battle is unlikely to succeed, but it gives a good idea of what is at stake.
*journalist at “La vita del popolo”
