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European Parliament: changes projected in Strasbourg’s new hemicycle. Unexpected data in Poland, Germany and France

The press office of the European Parliament released updated seat projection based on opinion polls in all EU27 countries. Centre-right Europeanist parties are predicted to grow in Poland, gains are projected for Emmanuele Macron’s En Move party in France, and for Salvini’s League Party in Italy, triumphs for the Greens in Germany. Socialists predicted to be the largest political group in Spain. On the whole the various political groups supporting European Community integration are likely to hold a majority, despite a drop in the EPP and Socialists & Democrats groups

Il Parlamento europeo a Strasburgo (foto SIR/Marco Calvarese)

Poland’s Civic Platform, the Greens in Germany, Fidesz in Hungary, En Marche in France, the League in Italy, and the Socialists in Spain are projected to perform well. Poland’s PiS ruling party is likely to lose votes, and so is Italy’s Five Star Movement. These are the highlights of the second projections of seats in the new European Parliament after the vote of May 23-26 contained in a report released today by the European Parliament in Brussels. It’s not a new survey, as specified by the study service and by the press office of the EP, but a recalculation based on a cross section of national polls. The latest projections are being released ten days after the first ones of February 18. The latest data differs slights from the previous one and it should be considered as of today, three months ahead of the European elections, the election campaign meant to orient citizens’ vote, has not yet been launched while – apart from few anticipations and indiscretions – candidates running for a seat in the European Parliament are still unknown by the general public.

Projected changes in the hemicycle. In the new seat projections for the next European Parliament the EPP is set to gain 181 seats, 3 less compared to two weeks ago. Socialists & Democrats are set to gain 135 seats (signalling a downward trend as compared to the outgoing Parliament). The Liberal group (ALDE), with 75 seats, is predicted to be the third largest force, followed by the Euro-sceptic Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF) group that includes Italy’s League, with 59 seats.

Gains are predicted for the Greens (enjoying a thrust from the Greens in Germany), from 44 to 49 seats; the GUE/NGL left (united left), is set to increase by one seat, (from 46 to 47). ECR Conservatives (European Conservatives and Reformists, left without British MEPs) is set to drop from 51 to 46 seats; the other anti-EU group EFDD (which includes Italy’s Five Star Movement), is also forecast to decrease from 43 to 39 MEPs. MEPs classified as “NA”, namely, not affiliated members, drop from  10 to 8, while all new political parties and movements, which have not yet declared their intentions, categorised as “other” (including Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche) fall from 58 to 66 seats. In general terms, the European Parliament would maintain a pro-European majority, although alliances would be required including at least the EPP, Socialists & Democrats, ALDE or the Greens.

CDU set to gain a third of all votes in Germany. The 167-page document on polling survey data released by the press office of the European Parliament shows that the En Marche movement in France is projected to grow (23.5%, 24 seats), signalling a leap forward from Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (19.4%, 19 MEPs). In Germany, Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU is projected to win one third of the vote (33.0%); the Green Party is set to rank second with 19.0%, signalling a sharp rise, followed by the Social Democratic Party (18.0%), while conservative and Euro-sceptic AfD is set to gain no more than 10% of the vote. Significant figures are projected for Poland where the pro-European, centre-right Civic Platform is set to obtain 37.5% of the vote, overtaking PiS ruling party (36.3%). The Socialist Party in Spain is projected to remain the largest political group with 26.8%, followed by the People’s Party (20.0%) and Ciudadanos (17.3%).
Euro-sceptic Italy. Italy’s League is set to gain a third of the vote (33.3%, with 28 seats), while a low is projected for the Five Star Movement (24.3%, 21 seats),  and for the Democratic Party (PD) (14 seats, 16.9% of the vote). A slight increase is predicted for Forza Italia (9.1%, 8 seats), with Fratelli d’Italia being the last party to cross the 4% minimum threshold with 4.4% of the vote (4 seats). As compared with earlier polls, Italy is reconfirmed as the most Euro-sceptic Country in Europe alongside with Hungary. Past projections for Italian political parties saw the League ranking first with 27 seats in Strasbourg (on a total of 76 MEPs), and 32.4% of the vote. The Five Start Movement was projected to win the second-largest share of the vote (25.7%, 22 seats); followed by the Democratic Party with 15 seats (17.3%). Forza Italia was set to obtain 8,7% of the vote and 7 seats. Fratelli D’Italia was projected to obtain 4 seats (4.4%).

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